SANTA CRUZ — On top of the approaching crescendo in holiday season activity, local forecasters are predicting a busy week of atmospheric conditions in Santa Cruz County.
High winds, moderate rainfall and a heavy tidal swell – including waves as large as 25-30 feet – are coming to the Central Coast on Wednesday and extending into the weekend, according to the National Weather Service. The agency has issued a high surf warning for Thursday in Santa Cruz County and the greater Bay Area.
“There’s a lot going on this week,” National Weather Service meteorologist Dylan Flynn told the Sentinel on Tuesday.
In addition to the hazardous surf conditions expected to peak before noon Thursday, Flynn said Wednesday will bring approximately a half-inch of rainfall to Watsonville, 0.75 inches to Santa Cruz and a full inch in the Santa Cruz Mountains. The next round of rain beginning Friday and continuing into Saturday, Flynn said, should carry an additional inch in Watsonville, 1.5 inches in Santa Cruz and 2 inches in the mountains.
All of this comes more than a week after the county received four straight days of rain, totaling 3 inches in Santa Cruz and more than 6 inches in some mountainous regions.
But Flynn added that this new system also features another notably treacherous difference: wind.
“We’re going to have some pretty strong winds with gusts in the 30 mph range,” said Flynn. “When we have wind on top of rain then we start to worry about trees coming down. So that’s a hazard to be concerned about.”
In anticipation of the approaching storms, California State Parks spokesperson Gabe McKenna confirmed that Big Basin Redwoods State Park will be closed Wednesday due to high winds. Coastal areas of Seacliff State Beach, the Rio Del Mar platform, New Brighton State Beach day-use parking lot and beach access zone and Natural Bridges State Beach will all be closed Thursday due to the “extremely large” winter swell and high tide.
While Santa Cruz is home to many surfers and oceanic patrons, Flynn said the best way to guarantee the safety of local residents and first responders is to steer clear of the coastline for the next few days.
“Respect the power of these waves and stay well back from the water,” said Flynn. “This is the type of surf that people die in, so we definitely want to make sure that people respect that.”
Santa Cruz County spokesperson Jason Hoppin, echoing sentiments from the weather service, told the Sentinel that officials would be keeping a close eye on coastal zones across the county that could experience some flooding during the storm surge.
“Thursday morning we have a high tide of about 6 feet, which is kind of a high winter tide,” said Hoppin on Tuesday morning. “So when you put 26-foot waves on top of that, you are likely to see water in areas where you do not normally see water and that could cause some potential damage to coastal properties, including flooding.”
Hoppin said he has a “particular concern” about North Coast beaches – essentially everything north of the city of Santa Cruz – on Thursday, where a break in the weather could attract visitors despite dangerously high surf.
“It’s going to look like a nice day; it’s not going to be as windy,” said Hoppin, “and yet what they are going to find is a very threatening and dangerous situation with enormous waves and wave run-up on top of a pretty high tide.”
For some, the triple-threat holiday system may appear eerily reminiscent of another winter storm that occurred around this time last year, resulting in widespread damage, coastal flooding and an ocean surge that tore the Capitola Wharf in two.
But while this latest forecast is rightly a cause for concern, Flynn said comparisons to last season’s “historic event” are unwarranted.
“That (last January storm) was definitely an anomalous event. That was a big, strong low-pressure system that came right on shore,” said Flynn, adding that the current storm, though also very strong, is located about 1,000 miles west of Northern California. “It’s slowly creeping closer, but it’s not going to ‘make landfall’ like we saw last New Year’s Eve.”
Storm preparedness resources are at santacruzcountyca.gov/or3.aspx. County officials also recommend signing up for the local emergency notification system, CruzAware, at CruzAware.org.
And while the holiday cheer is very much still in the air, officials advised local residents to remove any decorations that could get swept away in the stormy breeze.
“Today might be a good day to take down the blowup Santa, for instance,” said Flynn.
FORECAST
Wednesday: Rain, mainly after 10 a.m. Wind gusts as high as 22 mph.
Thursday: A 50% chance of rain. High surf warning in effect, waves 25-30 feet high.
Friday: Rain, mainly after 10 a.m. Possible thunderstorm Friday night into Saturday morning.
Source: National Weather Service
