SANTA CRUZ — This past weekend in Santa Cruz County was sunny, warm and, if you squinted, looked a lot like early spring. But don’t be fooled.
A powerful atmospheric river storm is on pace to hit the county Wednesday, forecasters say, bringing more high winds and heavy rainfall to a region still drenched from recent storms.
“All indications are that this is going to be the biggest and most intense winter storm we’ve had this season,” Santa Cruz County Office of Response, Recovery and Resilience Director Dave Reid told the Sentinel. “It will be comparable to some of the bigger atmospheric river storms that we had last year.”
Though rain is expected to begin falling Wednesday morning, National Weather Service meteorologist Rachel Kennedy said the strongest downpours are anticipated to arrive Wednesday night and continue on into early Thursday before tapering off throughout the day and into Friday.
According to Kennedy, low-lying county areas may receive 3-4 inches of rain from Wednesday to Friday while the Santa Cruz Mountains could get 4-5 inches with a few exceptional areas of higher totals. A similar dynamic will play out when it comes to wind, with lower-elevation wind speeds expected to reach 30-40 mph and isolated 50-60 mph gusts along some ridges in the mountains.
“Since the soils are saturated, we might see increased runoff into rivers, which might cause them to rise faster and there’s an increased risk of shallow landslides,” said Kennedy. “Downed trees and power lines might be possible.”
The weather service issued a flood watch Monday for Santa Cruz County and the greater Bay Area that begins at 4 a.m. Wednesday and continues to 4 a.m. Friday.
Since the start of the rain season Oct. 1, Sentinel weather observers reported 24.5 inches in Ben Lomond, 20.6 inches in Happy Valley, 16.3 inches in La Selva Beach and 17.4 inches in Soquel as of Jan. 24.
Earlier this month, the county Board of Supervisors ratified a local emergency declaration in response to storms in late December that caused damages estimated to exceed $4 million within the cities of Santa Cruz, Capitola and low-lying regions of Rio Del Mar and Seacliff.
This latest storm comes less than two weeks after another atmospheric river swept through the county and dumped more than 5 inches of rain on mountainous regions within a 48-hour period and caused creeks and rivers to rise quickly, with the San Lorenzo River at Big Trees cresting less than a foot shy of its action stage. Localized flooding was reported in the city of Santa Cruz, downed trees obliterated at least one home in North County and West Cliff Drive received some additional damage. But overall, major widespread impacts were avoided.
However, Reid said the rapid pace with which local rivers, creeks and streams rose during the recent storm indicates the soils are chock-full of water and any new rainfall is likely to skim right off the surface.
“This level of rainfall totals that’s being forecasted easily could push the San Lorenzo River, Soquel Creek, Aptos Creek, Corralitos and Salsipuedes (creeks) … into or close to flood stages,” said Reid, adding that the county plans to stand up its emergency operations center on Wednesday. “We’re preparing as such … that we may see some flooding in the Wednesday evening into Thursday timeframe.”
As for the Pajaro River and the levees dividing Santa Cruz and Monterey counties, Reid said its water levels are slower to rise compared to other waterways because of the size of the watershed that feeds it. The river’s forecasted crest will become clearer sometime Thursday, he said, though there’s hope that this storm may avoid passing directly over its more southern watershed.
Part of the levee burst last March after weeks of heavy rainfall, flooding the town of Pajaro and displacing about 1,700 of its residents.
While this past weekend’s stunning sunshine continued into Monday, Reid reminded that conditions will change very soon.
“It was a nice psychological reprieve for all of us to get a little bit of sun,” said Reid. “But things are still saturated and with the nature of this storm … all that rain that falls in the first half of Wednesday will re-saturate everything and then everything is just going to flow directly and quickly into our creeks, rivers and streams.”
A list of locations across the county where residents can pick up sandbags to buffer against runoff or floodwaters is online at bit.ly/cdi_sandbags. Additional storm preparedness resources are also available at santacruzcountyca.gov/or3.aspx. Community members can also sign up for CruzAware, the county’s local emergency notification system, at CruzAware.org.
The county Sheriff’s Office also recommended inspecting gutters, drain systems and car equipment as well as planning for extra travel time during the storm.
Forecast
Wednesday: Rain, mainly after 11 a.m. with high wind gusts. Possibly a thunderstorm after 11 p.m. with chance for periods of heavy rainfall.
Thursday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
Friday: Chance of rain, partly sunny.
Source: National Weather Service
